Of course, these scenarios illustrate just a few of the possible futures that may. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the european and asian continents. These are not literal predictions and the actual future will probably combine elements of all four scenarios. Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies 3. I am using this book as a reference this semester for my course mg 221 emerging market management. Strategy2020 expert group and the institute of socioeconomic.
Scenario building is a technique to stimulate different perspectives and images on the future. In addition, methodologies of the future research and the. Futurescenario wikibooks, open books for an open world. Fons trompenar from the gbn shares that scenario thinking is both a process and a future. Russia in 2020 brings together leading experts to analyze the possible scenarios for russia s development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead. Incorporated as a notforprofit foundation in 1971, and headquartered in geneva, switzerland, the forum is tied to no political, partisan or national interests.
After his inauguration in 2009, president obama announced a reset of u. The report focuses on possible future pathways for the russian economy and presents three different scenarios. During the trends conference 20 in brussels organized by vision 2020 an ebuproject participants thought of future scenarios which. They are not predictions, but rather act as plausible descriptions of what could happen. Table of contentsshow scenario planning scenarios are one of the most popular and persuasive methods used in futures studies. Government printing office gpo, superintendent of documents, po box.
Scenarios for the future of technology and international development. White paper on the future of europe european commission. On one hand, there are forecasts concerning the possibility of the russian federations territorial breakdown as it was foreseen by a cia report on the other hand, some people, like sachs who is an outstanding economist, forecast that russia belongs to the. Glazyev believes there are seven possible scenarios for russias geoeconomic and geopolitical position in the world over the next decade. National solidarity european variation international selection a stable environment with little competition knowledge is. This chapter will first introduce the approach to scenario building, both qualitative and quantitative. Future scenarios and implications for the industry world. Feb 12, 20 the future of russia s ability to remain a global energy supplier and the strength the russian energy sector gives the kremlin are increasingly in question. The future of cee healthcare the scenarios describe everyday life of the following key groups of stakehoders.
Apr 21, 2011 russia faces a range of challenges as it attempts to modernize and effectively use its power on the global stage. Natural gas production in europe with account for a new production profile in the netherlands will drop to 212 billion cubic meters bcm as early as 2020. The strategic scenarios take into account the visions of the people about their own future. It uses scenarios to illustrate some of the many ways in which the drivers examined in the study e. The russia 2010 scenarios presented in this paper serve to inform representatives of the business community and government in the netherlands on the potential mediumterm future of the russian.
Russian prospects political and economic scenarios. Scenarios for the future february 20 nikolay petrov, hse. Scenarios are stories about how the future environment might unfold for our organizations, our issues, our nations, and even our world. A detailed overview of the current and future business environment in russia. And the problem is, and youve seen it at the three scenarios, that in our view, this scenario cannot last for long. By publishing some articles in russian, russia in global affairs will. If you look at all three of these scenarios, it is clear that these are actually scenarios of stagnation even in the most optimistic of them economic growth can not be defined otherwise than as a cosmetic.
Germany and russia in 2030 building scenarios the scenario team was composed through an open call for applications in january 20. World scenario series scenarios for the russian federation. Despite putins eminent return, the authors believe that the socalled putin era is over. Table of contentsshow 200 futures for 2020 a list compiled in september 1994 by bt futurology unit. The european union and the united states 8 integration with the commonwealth of independent states and china 12 wto 15 role of investment in attaining 2020 goals 17. However, after 2020 we expect domestic production to continue to decline very modestly, to 199 bcm by 2040. The ec cofunded project egovrtd2020 aims to develop scenarios of egovernment in 2020 and beyond. Two scenarios for the future, oped in liberation, foreign policy studies, brookings institutuion. Scenarios for the future of technology and international. Putin starts reforming the system to minimize risks of transfer of power. Therefore, these scenarios should not be interpreted as direct forecasts for russias economy or public life based on any preset parameters. The strategic concept and three scenarios of development 4 role of trade in attaining 2020 goals 6 the role of trade 6 integration with the west. Report of the national intelligence councils 2020 project based on consultations with nongovernmental experts around the world december 2004 to obtain a copy of this publication, please contact.
Some future scenarios of russian natural gas in europe. However, the infrastructure and urban development industry iu has not kept up. Project 2020 scenarios for the future of cybercrime europol. These consolidated scenarios provide the input to develop the research roadmap in a later stage. They are stories built aroundread more thinking our way into the future. Read 330 predictions for 2020, a year that will see the world transform in big and small ways. Project 2020 scenarios for the future of cybercrime. Consumers we consider this group as a broader concept rather than just patients. Strategy 2020 russian version pdf the current results of the energy strategy of russia for the period up to 2020 realiza. The reports major conclusions must be drawn by the reader himself. A manageable future is one in which, relatively speaking, our luck holds, evolving circumstances arent as bad as some people fear, the powersthatbe make sensible decisions and world society adapts well enough to intensely changing conditions. Dec 01, 2011 as vladimir putin prepares to return to the presidency in the 2012 elections, the prospects for russia s future are unclear.
Surveys global scenarios for the period from 2025 to 2050, particularly as they relate to the supply of internationallyshared public goods, by 1 examining population and economic development projections, 2 highlighting growing pressures on commonpool resources, 3 summarizing the likely impacts of an increase in the global average temperature of between two and four degrees above pre. This book is a collection of many scholarly research. Russias role in the world and in the postsoviet space, political economy, economics, the political system and political parties, elites, society and civil. Thinking our way into the future scenarios and visioning. What russia will look like in the future the worlds largest country. Most households didnt have a telephone or a color television set and tape recorders still used open reels. These scenarios focus on the economic consequences in 2020 and 2021. Sources of productivity growth and policy implications for the russian economy ilya b. How multinational companies are seizing its opportunities slideshare uses cookies to improve functionality and performance, and to provide you with relevant advertising. Based on the major russian development tendencies and the chosen uncertainty axes, weve created eight future scenarios for russia in the year 2020. All personal artefacts your keys, clothes, shoes, notebook, newspaper have devices embedded within them which can communicate with each other. In the first scenario, less involvement from the eu is one of the factors contributing to the associationcommunity of serb municipalities.
Jan 23, 20 the scenarios for the russian federation were developed through a strategic dialogue process engaging over 350 business, policy and academic leaders throughout 2012. The reuse policy of european commission documents is regulated by. Shaping the future of construction future scenarios and. Russia2020, a project of the carnegie moscow center, was officially launched in early 2010. The russia2020 team was particularly interested in the fascinating scenario analysis of russias future by daniel yergin and thane gustafson. Four scenarios are derived showing different futures on egovernment in 2020. Jacob morgan is a keynote speaker, author most recently of the future of work, and futurist. The scenarios describe four plausible futures for north kosovo. The book which is being put out today, russia in 2020, is a collected work of scholarship by some 30 scholars, edited by our own nikolay. This report builds on the rockefeller foundations growing body of work in the. Innovation in global maritime production 2020 iglomp.
Learn about russias macroeconomic and geopolitical trajectory, basecaseupsidedownside scenarios for the market, the top 4 events to watch, and the most critical business strategies businesses need to implement to get the market right. Russia in 2020 brings together leading experts to analyze the possible scenarios for russias development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead. This includes assuming a total of 20 bcm of shale gas production in 2040. Germany and russia in 2030 friedrich ebert foundation. It will then place the model within the context of the recent history of longrange forecasting.
As the crisis begins to recede and russia starts to chart a path forward, an international team of experts has been brought together to discuss the prospects and opportunities for russias future along key vectors, including. Most firms and individuals who like to be able to manage the uncertainty of their future look towards the utilization of scenarios to prepare for the unexpected. Or at least to face the future with courage, even though not every scenario paints a pretty picture. Existing or newly formulated strategies and policies can then be tested against the future scenarios. Scenario planning uses stories of what could happen in the future with diverse stakeholders. Voskoboynikov national research university higher school of economics. Russia ties to reverse the dangerous drift he said had beset the relationship during george w. Pdf some future scenarios of russian natural gas in europe. How communities can adapt to peak oil and climate change, a book version of the content on this website with a new foreword is now available through chelsea green in the us and is soon.
The future of russia divergent scenarios for 202050. Groningen growth and development centre version of 16 may 2014 not to be quoted without permission abstract. Government printing office gpo, superintendent of documents, po box 391954. Project 2020 scenarios for the future of cybercrime white paper for decision makers. Current political trends could have a significant impact on russias future development. Future scenarios and implications for the industry incremental change is not an option any more in the construction industry. Government planners, corporate strategists and military analysts use them in order to aid decisionmaking.
On the tenth anniversary of vladimir putins model of state governance and on the eve of the next election cycle, it seemed like a logical time to analyze and reevaluate russias prospects for development. Future knowledge 4 scenarios for the future of dutch universities the scenarios on the other side of this fl ap you will fi nd the 4 scenarios. You can get the first 30 pages of his book for free as well as weekly content on the future of work. Today there is growing animosity between russia and the westeurope, britain and the united states. Scenarios for the future carnegie endowment for international peace lipman, maria, petrov, nikolay on. Russia in 2020brings together leading experts to analyze the possible scenarios for russias development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead despite putins eminent return, the authors believe that the socalled putin era is over. Nikolay petrov and maria lipman from the carnegie moscow center outlined scenarios for russias future development and discussed the russia 2020 project, which explores the countrys prospects over the coming decade. The futures of teacher education teacher development. The term scenario was introduced into planning and decisionmaking by herman kahn in connection with military and strategic studies done by rand in the 1950s. Jan 25, 20 will russia avoid the davos negative scenarios. The scenarios contain different aspects of integration. Each scenario is aimed at challenging conventional wisdom and questioning existing assumptions about russia \\s economic. As the crisis begins to recede and russia starts to chart a path forward, an international team of experts has been brought together to discuss the prospects and opportunities for russia s future along key vectors, including.
The world economic forum is an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. Nov 21, 2011 as vladimir putin prepares to return to the presidency in the 2012 elections, the prospects for russias future are unclear. Political liberalization and institutional reforms. They should be older than 18, residents of either russia or germany, and they should be fluent in the english language to make communi cation easier. Aug 20, 2012 forecasts concerning the future of russia are widely divergent which is alarming and should receive our immediate attention. After a decade of robust energy exports and revenues, russia is cutting natural gas prices to europe while revenue projections for its energy behemoth, gazprom, are declining starting this. Between 2020 to 2023, a periodic solar event called a grand minimum overtakes the sun lasting. Future studies, foresight and scenarios as basis for better. Russias economy faces several difficult years during which the government will need to achieve a balance between deep structural reform, shortterm solutions to economic challenges, and the need for political stability. Sep 30, 2017 in russia, the future is history russianamerican journalist masha gessen talks with scott simon about how russia went from communism back to authoritarianism without a stop at democracy in her. They are tools for thinking about the future, which will be shaped partly through deliberate strategies and actions, partly by factors beyond the control of decisionmakers. Russia in 2020 brings together leading experts to analyze the possible scenarios for russias development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead despite putins eminent return, the authors believe that the socalled putin era is over. Rather, they are an attempt at taking a structural view of the key uncertainties, risks, challenges and development opportunities for the russian federation in the near future. Scenarios can be a useful way of drawing upon imagination in a structured and serious way.
And then the rest of the document that explains and analyzes those scenarios. Some experts note that china, russia, india, turkey, iran, and others are seeking to carve out a new space for themselves in the newly emerging international system, as the united states is struggling to redefine its place and identity in the new world oxford research group, january 2. The fp7 cooperation work program considers that one of the ways to address societal challenges is to adopt a forwardlooking analysis of potential new scenarios of poverty related with emerging issues. Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.
Through the analysis of 48 scenario documents on the future of. Russia in 2020 brings together leading experts to analyze the possible. Scenarios for the future published on nov 21, 2011 while vladimir putin is unlikely to give up power any time soon, the political and economic system he created is incapable of. The method is a powerful planning tool because it is based on the idea that the future is unpredictable. Scenarios for the future, a book recently published in russian by the carnegie moscow center and rosspen and earlier published in english by the carnegie foundation for international peace, analyzes the potential impact of these trends. The paper at hand presents the findings of the phase one a first list of scenarios. Russia in 2020, also available in russian, brings together leading experts from russia, the united states, and europe to analyze the possible scenarios for russias development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead. Future scenarios of ikea shopping centres russia for 2020 artem gvozdikov bachelors thesis. Register for whatif please complete the form below and one of our specialists will contact you with entry details and additional information.
The next part addresses each of the three key variables within the context of literature covering scenarios for energy, economic growth, and geopolitical futures. May 16, 2014 is the russian strategy 2020 workable. See project site, and click there on the dairy 2020 scenarios pdf. Twentyfive years ago there were no personal computers, laptop machines, liquid crystal displays, digital wrist watches or pocket calculators. As vladimir putin prepares to return to the presidency in the 2012 elections, the prospects for russias future are unclear. By redefining the ultimate frontier, leapfrogging innovations in construction will finally help address major societal challenges, from. Russia faces a range of challenges as it attempts to modernize and effectively use its power on the global stage. Vember 23, 2000 approved new version of major provisions of energy. Future scenarios vision2020 trends conference 20 youtube.
May, 2014 russia cast doubt on the longterm future of the international space station as it retaliated on tuesday against u. Russia s role in the world and in the postsoviet space, political economy, economics, the political system and political parties, elites, society and civil. The past, present and future of russian energy strategy. This technique allows to better predict the evolution of a certain domain beyond shortterm forecasting based on the scenarios developed. The second scenario, its a kind of moderate scenario.
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